It is my belief, and I said this before. If you declare your hand that you are not willing to walk away then you become supplicant to the negotiation and for sure will be doomed to colonial status in perpetuity.
The remainers make great store in regard to our non-compliance in exporting to the EU if we are to leave the Customs Union. Let’s deal with this today.
1.If, we are no longer in a customs union then our products that are export to the EU would be covered by an FTA. But of course we won’t have one, at least not immediately, depending on the behaviour of the EU lord and masters this could be some time coming. So the remainers have some traction here except:
2.There is a mechanism for WTO countries to comply through what they call MRA’s (Mutual Recognition Agreements). There are many countries which do not have FTAs with the EU these countries trade perfectly well with an MRA in place, including Australia, Japan and the United States. Of course Remainers will obfuscate as the EU could withhold, through some petty squabble such approvals. In which case UK exports to the EU would grind to a halt. This is a nebulas’ argument as trade is two-way, and favour the EU.
3. However, in the event that the EU were to do such self harm. Withhold these agreements this would be blatant discrimination, justiciable, it would be perfectly acceptable to pursue the EU through WTO courts, and we would for sure win.
In reality MRAs should be simple as we just continue with the status quo. We should have been working on establishing these.
But the remainers will claim that the process to register products for export to the EU requires us to be a member of ‘across border traders register ‘ as Authorized Economic Operator. Of course our membership here is through the EU. When we leave we leave the AEO, this makes for another point of obfuscation by remainers. However, this is not the gift of the EU it is a process organized by the World Customs Organization ‘WCO’. Like the WTO we are a founding member of the WCO and indeed this is administered by HMRC (HM Revenue and Custom).
The important part in all of this is we conclude MRAs prior to leaving. It would be irresponsible if the government has not put these in place up to this point. Similarly, the rights of EU citizens and UK nationals as well as such things as aviation etc. I’m certain these have been covered off which gives hope that the rest has been dealt with.
This leaves me to conclude that March 30th will look like March 29th.